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Watching a broad area of low pressure over the open East Pacific basin

7/15/2018 5:00:00 PM

The main area of concern is a broad area of low pressure located approximately 1,300 miles east-southeast of Hawaii. This area of low pressure will continue to move westward over the next few days and will move through an environment featuring warm ocean waters and relatively light wind shear. This should allow this feature to better organize over the next few days and will likely become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. However, this feature should pose no direct threat to Hawaii during the upcoming week.

Elsewhere in the basin, a pair of tropical waves is found over the open waters. Neither of these waves are expected to develop.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio

2018 East Pacific Storms

Aletta Bud Carlotta Daniel Emilia Fabio
Gilma Hector Ileana John Kristy Lane
Miriam Norman Olivia Paul Rosa Sergio
Tara Vicente Willa Xavier Yolanda Zeke

East Pacific Basin Maps

National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC E. Pacific Activity

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160553
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system
located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
are showing signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the next day or so before upper-level winds
increase by mid-week. This system is moving westward and is expected
to cross into the Central Pacific basin on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula has changed little this evening.
However, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that this
disturbance is producing gale-force wind gusts east of the wave
axis in the strongest thunderstorms.  Although the environment is
expected to be only marginally conducive, some additional
development is possible during the next day or so while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward over the open East Pacific. By
Wednesday, strong upper-level winds will likely prevent further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart