As of Monday morning, EDT, Tropical Depression 11W is about 375 miles northeast of Manila, Philippines. The system is moving to the west 15 mph with winds of 35 mph.
With little wind shear and warm water temperatures, 11W should strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 12 hours. This will pass just north of the island of Luzon with heavy rainfall of 3-6 inches and stronger wind gusts near the coastline. Mudslides will be possible with this system.
This will then track into the South China Sea and take aim at southern China and northern Vietnam as a stronger tropical storm or possibly a typhoon. No matter the strength of the system, heavy rainfall and stronger wind gusts will be possible along with mudslides, especially near the track of the storm.
Meanwhile, another area of convection is about 75 miles south-southeast of Bach Long Vi, Vietnam. This system will move onshore, which will decrease any chance this becomes a named system. However, flooding rainfall and mudslides will remain possible over the next couple of days.
The final area to monitor is farther east of the Philippines and convection remains quite disorganized with this system. Also, with Tropical Depression 11W so close and developing, this will limit the chance of this developing. It may bring more flooding rainfall to the central Philippines for the middle of the week and eventually into the Ryukyu Islands for the middle and end of the week.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk